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Predictions & Models

Our track record

Model Accuracy compares how our models have performed. Prediction Archive is the full list of games we predicted. Curious how the shot metrics work? Read the xG methodology — expected goals, Corsi and Fenwick.

Model Accuracy Tracker

Elo
56.9%
Live accuracy
2235 / 3931
CV: 57.3%
Goal-diff regressor
57.9%
Live accuracy
2276 / 3931
CV: 57.4%
xG-diff regressor
58.6%
Live accuracy
2304 / 3931
CV: 59.0%
Ensemble
58.0%
Live accuracy
2280 / 3931
CV: 58.1%

Cumulative Accuracy Over Time

50%55%60%65%70%75%80%10-1001-1104-1212-3004-0912-3004-16EloEnsembleGoal-diffxG-diff